Executive Overview
The ongoing conflict in Gaza has transcended traditional metrics of war-related devastation, initiating an unprecedented ecological and structural crisis that threatens the long-term survival of its population. According to the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) official third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Israel’s sustained military campaign since October 2023 has effectively neutralized years of climate adaptation progress in the Gaza Strip.
The comprehensive 91-page report highlights a critical and severe reality: while active military operations do not directly alter global atmospheric conditions, the widespread destruction of critical civilian infrastructure—including water desalination plants, power grids, healthcare systems, and agricultural lands—has completely stripped the enclave’s two million residents of their ability to withstand climate-induced hazards. Deprived of basic municipal services and adequate shelter, Gazans are now acutely exposed to intensifying heatwaves, acute water scarcity, and lethal outbreaks of waterborne diseases.
This assessment reframes the humanitarian disaster in Gaza through the lens of climate vulnerability, warning that the systematic collapse of adaptive infrastructure will leave generations of Palestinians exposed to the inescapable impacts of global climate change in one of the world’s most ecologically fragile regions.
Detailed Chronology: From Fragile Resilience to Infrastructure Collapse
To understand the magnitude of the present climate adaptation crisis, the PA’s submission places the current destruction within a historical context of pre-existing ecological stress and precarious infrastructural adaptations.
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| CHRONOLOGY OF CLIMATE VULNERABILITY |
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| PRE-OCTOBER 2023: PRECARIOUS BALANCE |
| • Dependency on a severely degraded Coastal Aquifer (97% non-potable water). |
| • Rapid adoption of rooftop solar microgrids to offset chronic power outages. |
| • Initial implementation of UN-backed climate adaptation and water projects. |
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| OCTOBER–DECEMBER 2023: INITIAL INFRASTRUCTURE PARALYSIS |
| • Complete fuel shutoffs disable primary wastewater treatment and desalination. |
| • Widespread bombardment targets energy networks, municipal roads, and grids. |
| • Over 100,000 metric tons of municipal solid waste accumulate in residential areas.|
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| EARLY TO MID-2024: SYSTEMIC ADAPTATION DESTRUCTION |
| • Destruction of over 70% of Gaza's localized solar energy capacity. |
| • Systemic destruction of healthcare facilities during extreme summer heatwaves. |
| • Demolition of agricultural topsoil, tree canopy, and green buffers. |
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| LATE 2024–PRESENT: COMPOUND ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS |
| • PA submits 3rd NDC to UNFCCC detailing total loss of adaptive capacity. |
| • 2 million displaced residents living in uninsulated, temporary shelters. |
| • Sinking into chronic environmental health hazards, cholera/polio risks, and |
| unprecedented vulnerability to regional heatwaves and droughts. |
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------+The Pre-War Baseline (Prior to October 2023)
For decades, the Gaza Strip faced severe environmental pressures. Long-term blockades, high population density, and restricted access to raw materials had already placed immense strain on the environment. Gaza relied heavily on the Coastal Aquifer, a natural groundwater source that suffered from severe over-extraction, leading to seawater intrusion and chemical contamination that rendered more than 97% of its water unsafe for human consumption.
To adapt, the enclave turned to localized, decentralised solutions. Gaza became a regional leader in rooftop solar energy adoption, utilizing microgrids to power homes, hospitals, and water purification units during frequent electrical grid blackouts. UN agencies and international donors also invested in modern wastewater treatment plants and seawater desalination facilities designed to insulate the population from accelerating regional droughts.
The Escalation and Systemic Dismantling (October 2023 – Present)
The outbreak of hostilities in October 2023 altered this trajectory. Continuous bombardment and ground operations quickly targeted or compromised key municipal infrastructure across the enclave.
By late 2023, fuel supplies necessary to run back-up generators for water processing were restricted or cut off, leading to the immediate collapse of municipal sanitation. By mid-2024, direct kinetic strikes and collateral destruction had eliminated vast swaths of the localized solar capacity that formed the backbone of Gaza’s climate-resilient energy network. The systematic breakdown of roads, municipal service fleets, and waste management centers prevented local authorities from clearing debris or managing hazardous waste, leaving millions exposed to toxic environmental conditions during peak summer heat.
Supporting Context & Metrics: The Mechanics of Ecological Rupture
The 91-page UN submission systematically measures how the destruction of physical infrastructure converts natural weather variations into life-threatening emergencies.
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| INFRASTRUCTURE BREAKDOWN & VULNERABILITY |
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| | | |
▼ ▼ ▼ ▼
+----------+ +-------------------+ +------------------+ +-------------------+
| WATER | | TEMPERATURE | | ENERGY | | AGRICULTURE |
+----------+ +-------------------+ +------------------+ +-------------------+
| - 80%+ | | - 100% loss of | | - Destruction of | | - Destruction of |
| reduction| | urban cooling | | rooftop solar | | arable land & |
| in water | | infrastructure | | microgrids | | irrigation systems |
| production| | - Extreme heat in | | - Complete grid | | - Soil salinization|
| - Untreated| | metal/plastic | | blackout & fuel| | & toxic heavy |
| sewage | | displacement | | exhaustion | | metal pollution |
| spills | | tents | | | | |
+----------+ +-------------------+ +------------------+ +-------------------+Water, Sanitation, and Aquifer Contamination
Water production in Gaza has plummeted to a fraction of pre-war levels. The destruction or forced closure of major desalination plants, combined with damage to main supply pipelines, has forced residents to rely on untreated or brackish water sources.
- Wastewater Spills: The collapse of fuel lines and electrical grids serving wastewater treatment plants has resulted in hundreds of thousands of cubic meters of untreated sewage spilling into urban streets and the Mediterranean Sea daily.
- Aquifer Infiltration: Untreated sewage, combined with toxic heavy metals from exploded ordnance, continues to seep into the shallow coastal aquifer. This contamination threatens to permanently destroy the region’s primary natural freshwater source.
Thermal Exposure and Extreme Urban Heat
As global climate change drives ambient summer temperatures in the Eastern Mediterranean above historic averages, Gazans face severe thermal stress without the basic infrastructure needed to cope.
- Loss of Urban Cooling: Mass displacement has forced nearly two million people into dense tent camps made of non-insulated materials like plastic and canvas. These structures trap heat, raising internal temperatures well beyond safe limits.
- Rubble and Thermal Mass: The reduction of multi-story urban centers to millions of tons of concrete rubble creates severe "urban heat island" effects. Concrete absorbs heat during the day and radiates it at night, denying residents relief from elevated ambient temperatures.
Energy Grid Decapitation
Before the conflict, small-scale solar power was Gaza’s primary tool for building climate resilience.
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| PRE-WAR VS. POST-OCTOBER 2023 CLIMATE ADAPTATION MATRIX |
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| PRE-OCTOBER 2023 ADAPTATION | CURRENT ADAPTATION CAPABILITY |
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| Decentralized solar microgrids | Destroyed / Inoperable (70%+ capacity loss) |
| Centralized desalination units | Severely damaged / Offline due to fuel cuts |
| Modern wastewater management | Damaged; raw sewage overflowing into streets |
| Functional healthcare & cooling | Collapsed; hospitals unable to treat heat |
| Arable land & green buffers | Razed; severe topsoil contamination |
+-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------------------+The NDC document notes that over 70% of solar energy arrays—installed on residential roofs, public schools, and medical facilities—have been damaged or completely destroyed. This loss of renewable energy leaves the enclave unable to power water purification equipment, cooling systems, or refrigeration for medication during heatwaves.
Agricultural Destruction and Soil Contamination
The conflict has devastated Gaza’s agricultural sector, destroying the green infrastructure that helped mitigate extreme regional heat and maintain local food security.
- Farmland Degradation: Heavy tracked vehicles, aerial bombardment, and ground clearing have destroyed orchards, greenhouses, and irrigation networks.
- Contamination: Soil across the enclave is heavily contaminated with toxic chemicals, unexploded ordnance, and asbestos from destroyed buildings, preventing agricultural recovery and aggravating dust storms during hot, dry periods.
Official Statements and International Frameworks
The submission of the third NDC to the UNFCCC carries political and legal weight, offering a detailed assessment of the intersection between military conflict and global environmental commitments under the Paris Agreement.
Key Highlights from the PA Submission
The Palestinian Authority’s Environment Quality Authority (EQA) outlined the key thesis of the submission:
"The aggression on the Gaza Strip did not make the climate worse; it removed the housing, water and sanitation systems, health facilities, energy networks, roads and livelihoods through which people absorb a climate they were already struggling with."
The document systematically details how the collapse of these baseline systems removes the safety cushion required to withstand the accelerating impacts of climate change. It highlights that while climate change manifests through ambient temperature shifts and altered precipitation patterns, human survival depends on civil infrastructure:
"Without operational hospitals, clean water delivery systems, or basic thermal protection, extreme weather events become immediate drivers of mass mortality, severe dehydration, and uncontrollable disease transmission."
International Environmental and Legal Context
The report aligns with wider assessments from international institutions, including the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), which estimated in mid-2024 that the war had generated over 39 million metric tons of debris in Gaza. UNEP stressed that clearing this waste—much of it contaminated with toxic substances—will take years and require immense financial and logistical support.
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| KEY STATISTICAL METRICS IDENTIFIED IN UN/PA REPORTS |
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| METRIC CATEGORY | DOCUMENTED IMPACT / STATUS |
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| Estimated Debris Generated | > 39 Million Metric Tons |
| Reduction in Municipal Water Supply | > 80% Loss from Baseline |
| Solar Microgrid Infrastructure Loss | > 70% Capacity Destroyed |
| Displaced Population Exposed to Heat/Weather | ~ 1.9 to 2.0 Million People |
| Sewage Discharge into Mediterranean/Streets | Hundreds of Thousands m³/Day |
+---------------------------------------------------+-------------------------------+International legal experts and climate advocates argue that the destruction of climate adaptation infrastructure raises serious questions regarding state obligations under international humanitarian law and environmental protection treaties. Legal scholars note that targeting dual-use infrastructure—such as energy networks, water facilities, and municipal sanitation—severely undermines a population’s long-term right to a safe, clean, and healthy environment.
For its part, Israel has historically maintained that its military operations target militant infrastructure embedded within urban areas, arguing that tactics deployed by armed groups endanger civilian systems. However, environmental and human rights groups emphasize that under international law, the operational consequences of infrastructure destruction must account for long-term civilian harm, including heightened vulnerability to environmental hazards.
Future Outlook: Reconstruction Burden and Climate Integration
The PA’s NDC report makes clear that post-conflict recovery in Gaza cannot simply aim for a return to pre-war conditions. Instead, any meaningful reconstruction effort must prioritize climate resilience to prevent future humanitarian disasters driven by extreme weather.
Priorities for Long-Term Recovery
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| STRATEGIC PRIORITIES FOR GREEN RECONSTRUCTION |
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| 1. ENVIRONMENTAL REMEDIATION & DEBRIS CLEARANCE |
| • Neutralization of unexploded ordnance and toxic heavy metals. |
| • Safe removal and recycling of 39+ million tons of hazardous rubble/asbestos. |
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| 2. WATER REHABILITATION & AQUIFER RESTORATION |
| • Rebuilding decentralized, solar-powered seawater desalination facilities. |
| • Sealing leaking sewage lines to prevent further groundwater contamination. |
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| 3. GREEN ENERGY GRID REDUNDANCY |
| • Restoring distributed solar infrastructure across public and private sectors. |
| • Constructing resilient energy storage systems for critical facilities. |
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| 4. RESILIENT HOUSING & URBAN PLANNING |
| • Replacing temporary canvas shelters with thermally insulated structures. |
| • Integrating green urban space to mitigate severe heat island effects. |
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------+- Debris and Toxic Hazard Remediation: Before physical reconstruction can begin, millions of tons of rubble contaminated with heavy metals, unexploded ordnance, and asbestos must be safely cleared. This process is essential to prevent chronic respiratory diseases and avoid long-term groundwater pollution.
- Solar Power Expansion: Rebuilding Gaza’s energy sector will require substantial investment in off-grid renewable energy. Distributed microgrids are essential for ensuring that hospitals, water pumping stations, and sewage facilities can operate independently during crises.
- Climate-Resilient Housing: Temporary canvas and plastic shelters must be replaced with thermally insulated housing capable of withstanding extreme summer heat and winter storms.
- Loss and Damage Financing: The PA report calls on international climate funding mechanisms—such as the UNFCCC Loss and Damage Fund established at COP27—to support recovery efforts. The report argues that Gaza’s crisis represents a severe form of climate vulnerability driven by human conflict, requiring targeted global investment to restore its adaptive capacity.
Conclusion
The findings submitted to the United Nations underline a troubling shift in modern warfare: military actions can destroy the vital infrastructure that protects vulnerable populations from extreme weather. Without immediate international action to repair Gaza’s destroyed municipal infrastructure, restore its renewable energy systems, and provide safe shelter, the enclave’s two million residents will remain severely exposed to the growing threats of extreme weather, heatwaves, and disease in an warming world.
