Executive Overview
As preparations for the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) gather momentum, international policy experts and climate scientists are issuing a stark warning: global ambitions to limit warming to 1.5°C will fail unless the international community fundamentally alters its relationship with raw materials. For decades, international climate diplomacy has focused overwhelmingly on transitioning energy systems—pivoting from fossil fuel combustion to renewable electricity generation. However, an emerging consensus among policy analysts highlights a critical structural omission in this framework: the embedded carbon emissions resulting from material extraction, refining, and manufacturing.
At the sidelines of the UN General Assembly (UNGA) in New York, COP31 host nation Türkiye unveiled a pioneering diplomatic framework designed to bridge this divide. The host nation proposed concrete, quantitative global goals aimed at bending the global material consumption curve: increasing the worldwide share of recycled products in total material use to at least 15% by 2035—up from a baseline of just 6.9% in 2025—and halving global municipal and industrial waste generation over the same timeframe.
Writing on behalf of international policy discourse, Dr. Patrick Schröder, a Senior Research Fellow at Chatham House’s Environment and Society Centre, emphasizes that a climate summit dedicated to implementation cannot afford to leave material use off the agenda. Without integrating circular economy principles directly into Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and industrial decarbonization roadmaps, energy efficiency gains risk being offset by accelerating resource extraction.
Detailed Chronology
[ Paris Agreement (2015) ] ──> Focus primarily on energy sector decarbonization
│
[ Circularity Gap Reports (2018–2024) ] ──> Escalating material extraction; global circularity drops below 7%
│
[ COP28 / COP29 Debates ] ──> Growing recognition of critical material bottlenecks in clean tech
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[ UNGA Side-Event (New York) ] ──> Türkiye presents diplomatic vision for COP31
• Target 1: Raise recycled material share to 15%+
• Target 2: Halve global waste generation by 2035
│
[ Road to COP31 ] ──> Push to integrate circularity into NDCs 3.0 frameworksThe Evolution of the Material-Climate Nexus
- 2015 (COP21 – Paris): The landmark Paris Agreement establishes clear temperature targets but leaves the specific mechanisms of industrial material governance to individual national discretion. NDCs focus primarily on renewable energy deployment and vehicle electrification, leaving supply-chain material intensity largely unaddressed.
- 2018–2024 (The Circularity Gap): Successive global assessments reveal a troubling trend: despite expanding climate commitments, total raw material extraction exceeds 100 billion tonnes annually. The global circularity rate—measuring the proportion of recycled materials fed back into the economy—declines steadily from over 9% to under 7%.
- 2023–2024 (COP28 Dubai to COP29 Baku): As the rapid scaling of clean energy technologies (solar PV, wind turbines, electric vehicles, and battery storage) accelerates demand for critical minerals and structural materials like steel, copper, and aluminum, diplomats begin confronting the physical supply-chain bottlenecks and environmental impacts associated with raw material processing.
- September 2025 (UN General Assembly High-Level Side Event): During diplomatic convening in New York, the incoming COP31 presidency, led by Türkiye, formally proposes elevating material circularity into the core UNFCCC negotiations framework. The proposal sets specific, target-driven benchmarks: doubling global material circularity to at least 15% and cutting waste generation by 50% by 2035.
- Looking Forward to COP31: The prospective host nation and international think tanks, including Chatham House, initiate bilateral diplomatic engagements to embed material reduction benchmarks into the upcoming third generation of NDCs (NDCs 3.0), due ahead of the conference.
Supporting Context & Metrics
The Material Reality of Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions
The imperative to integrate circular economy strategies into climate policy rests on an undeniable scientific foundation: according to data from the UN Environment Programme’s International Resource Panel (IRP) and the IPCC, over 45% of global greenhouse gas emissions originate directly from the extraction, processing, and management of raw materials, land, and food systems.
While operational energy emissions (such as fuel burned in light-duty transportation or coal combusted for grid power) are addressed through standard decarbonization policies, "embodied emissions"—those generated during the extraction of iron ore, the smelting of primary aluminum, the processing of lithium, and the synthesis of petrochemicals—continue to grow.
Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Breakdown:
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┬────────────────────────┐
│ Operational Energy & Direct Fuel Use (~55%) │ Material Extraction & │
│ (Electricity, Heating, Direct Transport Emissions) │ Processing (~45%) │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┴────────────────────────┘Decoupling Economic Growth from Raw Resource Consumption
The central metric highlighted by COP31 host proposals is the global secondary material utilization rate. Data underscores the magnitude of the challenge facing the international community:
| Metric | Current Baseline (2025 Est.) | Türkiye COP31 Target (2035) | Sectoral Focus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global Circularity Rate | 6.9% | ≥ 15.0% | Industrial manufacturing, construction, electronics |
| Global Waste Generation | ~2.1 Billion Tonnes (MSW) | 50% Reduction | Municipal waste, industrial bi-products, packaging |
| Annual Resource Extraction | ~106 Billion Tonnes | Absolute Decoupling | Critical metals, non-metallic minerals, biomass |
Targeted Shift in Global Secondary Material Share:
2025 (Baseline) [███▋ ] 6.9%
2035 (Target) [█████████████▋ ] 15.0%To move from a 6.9% circularity rate to 15% within a decade requires a massive transformation of industrial supply chains. For heavy industry, it necessitates transitioning from primary smelting to secondary, scrap-based production pathways. In construction—which accounts for over 40% of global resource extraction—it requires shifting toward modular design, building adaptive reuse, and recycling concrete and structural steel.
Furthermore, the clean energy transition itself is uniquely material-intensive. An electric vehicle requires six times the mineral inputs of a conventional internal combustion engine car, while an onshore wind plant requires nine times more mineral resources than a gas-fired power plant of comparable capacity. Without high rates of secondary recovery and material substitution, the green transition risks creating new environmental pressures in high-extraction regions.
Official Statements
Chatham House Perspective: Elevating Circular Economy in Climate Policy
Dr. Patrick Schröder, Senior Research Fellow at Chatham House’s Environment and Society Centre, emphasized the necessity of addressing material demand within international climate negotiations:
"A climate summit serious about implementation cannot afford to leave major emissions reductions off the table. Yet, that is precisely the risk COP31 faces unless it makes reducing raw material use central to the way countries decarbonize their economies.
We have reached the limits of what can be achieved through efficiency gains alone within a linear economic model. If we simply replace a fossil-fuel-intensive linear economy with a mineral-intensive linear economy, we will miss our climate targets and create unprecedented collateral damage to biodiversity and terrestrial ecosystems. Circular resource governance is not merely an environmental preference; it is a hard prerequisite for achieving net-zero emissions."
Diplomatic Positioning: The Host Nation’s Vision
Representatives from the Turkish delegation at the UN General Assembly highlighted how their domestic initiatives, such as the national "Zero Waste" program, serve as a template for global climate diplomacy ahead of COP31:
"Our proposal in New York reflects a realistic assessment of global supply chains. Achieving an absolute reduction in emissions requires us to look beyond the smoke stacks and energy grids to the very materials that construct our modern world.
By proposing a global goal of reaching at least 15% recycled content in total material consumption and halving global waste by 2035, Türkiye intends to make COP31 the turning point where resource circularity becomes a primary instrument of international climate ambition."
Future Outlook
Industrial, Trade, and Policy Imperatives
As the diplomatic momentum builds toward COP31, integrating raw material reduction targets into international climate policy presents both systemic hurdles and significant opportunities. Policy analysts identify three primary arenas that will dictate the success of this agenda:
┌──────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ COP31 Policy Pillars │
└──────────────────────┬───────────────────────┘
│
┌───────────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────────┐
▼ ▼ ▼
┌─────────────────┐ ┌─────────────────┐ ┌─────────────────┐
│ National Policy │ │ Trade & Market │ │ Infrastructure │
│ (NDCs 3.0 Framework) │ Harmonization │ │ Investment │
└─────────────────┘ └─────────────────┘ └─────────────────┘1. Inclusion of Material Goals in NDCs 3.0
The primary test of the COP31 host proposal will be whether member states adopt concrete material reduction targets within their updated Nationally Determined Contributions. Currently, fewer than 20% of national climate plans contain measurable targets for material circularity or secondary resource management. Updating NDC guidelines to include standardized carbon accounting for embodied materials will be essential.
2. Trade Harmonization and Standards for Secondary Materials
Achieving a 15% global circularity rate will require reforming international trade policies that currently impede the movement of secondary resources. Disparities in legal definitions—where high-purity recycled metals or reprocessed polymers are classified as "waste" rather than valuable commodities—create unnecessary trade barriers. Establishing harmonized international standards for end-of-waste criteria will be vital to creating smooth global markets for secondary materials.
3. Scaling Circular Infrastructure in Developing Economies
While advanced industrial economies generate the vast majority of historical waste, rapidly developing nations are making major investments in foundational infrastructure. Providing climate finance mechanisms, technology transfer, and technical assistance to build closed-loop manufacturing and waste management infrastructure in the Global South will prevent these nations from locking in resource-intensive industrial models.
Conclusion
The diplomatic push led by Türkiye and advocated by institutions like Chatham House represents a fundamental recalibration of climate strategy. If COP31 successfully elevates material reduction and resource circularity from niche policy discussions to central pillars of climate action, it could unlock the missing emissions reductions needed to keep global climate goals viable. The transition to net-zero cannot merely be about changing the fuel that powers the global economy; it must transform the fundamental material base upon which that economy is built.
